The fog of war and geopolitics can make preliminary responses to the assault on Russian and Syrian forces a short while ago complicated to assess.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response seemed timid and was at odds with statements from his Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu and much more recent statements from Russia’s International Ministry.
Putin backed off on explicitly blaming Israel for the downing of the IL-20 ELINT plane which killed 15 Russian servicemen, but created it apparent he retains them accountable for the attack as a whole.
My views on what the aims of the attack had been are the aim of my hottest short article at Strategic Tradition Basis.
It was noticeable to me that this attack was developed as a provocation to commence Planet War III in Syria and blame the Russians for attacking a NATO member without appropriate trigger, since the Syrian air protection forces ended up the kinds responsible for taking pictures down the plane.
Lying us into war is a time-honored American political custom, regardless of whether we’re talking Fort Sumter, Pearl Harbor or the Gulf of Tonkin. All of these incidents have been avoidable by Presidents intent on finding into a conflict whilst concurrently enjoying the victim card by receiving the other facet to shoot first.
I’m sorry if that is a controversial assertion but the historic document on them is very, really very clear.
From Strategic Tradition:
The set up is really very clear. Israel and France coordinated an attack on numerous targets in Syria without US involvement but with absolute US understanding of the operation to provoke Russia into likely off fifty percent-cocked by attacking the inconsequential French frigate which assisted Israel’s air assault.
Any denunciation of sinister intent by Israeli Defense Forces is hollow because if they experienced not intended to provoke a broader conflict they would have given Russia extra than one particular minute to apparent their planes from the area.
That would constitute an assault on a NATO member condition and have to have a response from NATO, thus obtaining the specific escalation needed to continue the war in Syria indefinitely and contact off WWIII.
This neatly bypasses any objections to a wider conflict by President Trump who would have to react militarily to a Russian assault on a NATO ally. It also would reassert NATO’s requirement in the public dialogue, further more marginalizing Trump’s attacks on it and any perceived generate of his for peace.
Now choose that primary, actually off-the-cuff, evaluation of what occurred and blend it with a skillful bit of decoding of Russia’s statements on the attacks by Fort Russ News and you have, I feel, a rather clear photo of what the intent was and why Putin appeared to downplay the event calling it a “… chain of tragic situation, since the Israeli airplane did not shoot down our jet.”
My hat is off to Joachin Flores for his analysis in this article. It is extensive and associated and really worth your time to read. I will summarize it below. His thesis? Putin is attempting to preserve Russian/French relations by not naming France as the perpetrator for the dropped airplane and the 15 gentlemen.
That Russia mentioned French missile launches but did not say what or who they strike. And ahead of the Russians explained anything about the assault the French denied they experienced any involvement in the assault.
In its place, Russia went alongside with the tale the U.S. et.al. organized in progress, which doesn’t match what specifics we know about the situation, that Syrian Air Defenses shot down the IL-20 by blunder.
The two the French denial and the U.S. statements about Syrian air defenses remaining the culprit arrived before anything official arrived from the Russians.
This is a common “preparing the narrative” strategy employed by the West all the time. Seize the story, plant seeds of question and set your opponent into a rhetorical box they cannot wiggle out of with the reality.
MH-17, Skripal, Crimea, chemical weapons attacks in Ghouta, Douma and so on. These operations are scripted.
And Flores is specifically right that this script was going off as prepared with one particular compact difficulty.
The Russians went together with it.
Russia, and Putin, did the 1 detail that makes this total point glimpse like a body occupation, it accepted the narrative of Israeli malfeasance in the interest of stopping a broader conflict by accusing and/or attacking a NATO member, France.
Flores will make the salient place that the S-200 friendly fire circumstance is highly not likely. That, in point, France shot down the aircraft, was organized to accept blame (which it did by preemptively denying it was associated) and destroy what was left of Russian/French relations.
Now Russia can use the justification of Israeli betrayal as justification for upgrading Syria’s air defenses. Citing the incredibly thing that brought on the tragic demise of their soldiers, antiquated air defense programs which did not appropriately discover mate from foe.
It may well be a lie, but due to the fact when did that make any difference in geopolitics?
And as I point out in my other article…
This is Israel’s worst nightmare. A circumstance wherever any aerial assault on targets within just Syria would be suicide missions, puncturing the fantasy of the Israeli air force’s superiority and shifting the delicate stability of electric power in Syria decidedly from them.
This is why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu worked Putin so challenging above the final two several years. But, this incident wipes that slate clear. This was a cynical betrayal of Putin’s trust and persistence. And Israel will now pay out the value for their miscalculation.
Supplying Syria S-300’s does not avenge the fifteen useless Russian troopers. Putin will have to react to that in a far more concrete way to appease the hardliners in his authorities and at home. His persistence and seeming passivity are being pushed to their restrict politically. This is, following all, a side advantage to all of this for the neoconservative and globalist hawks in D.C., Europe and Tel Aviv.
But, the serious decline in this article for Israel will be Russia instituting a no-fly zone around western Syria. Any significantly less reaction from Putin will be seized on by and the condition will escalate from in this article. So, Putin has to deploy S-300’s here. And once that occurs, the authentic resolution to Syria starts in earnest.
And it means that if the FUKUS alliance — France, the U.K. and the U.S. — want an invasion of Syria they will have to do so brazenly devoid of a casus belli. And this is a little something we have prevented for five a long time now.
Simply because lying us into war is how we retain the illusion of combating wars of conquest beneath the rubric of Christian Just War Idea which supports our national spirit of manifest future.
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