Trump and Putin are most likely to explore the tricky circumstance in southern Syria when they satisfy while the US president states he desires US forces back again household, the CIA, Pentagon and Israel may be happier to see them remain so the war-torn point out continues to be unstable…
Syrian government tanks and soldiers acquire positions in the city of Western Ghariyah, about 15km east of the southern embattled town of Daraa. Photo: AFP/ SANA handout produced on June 30, 2018.
Ahead of the Eagle-satisfies-Bear Trump-Putin summit on July 16 in Helsinki, Syria-centered spin has gone into overdrive. Mysterious sources have leaked what is billed as President Trump’s alleged Syria deal talked over with Jordan’s King Abdullah.
Trump would “allow” Damascus, supported by Russian air ability, to get back its territory alongside the borders of Jordan, Israel and Iraq. In return, President Putin and Bashar al-Assad would agree to create an extended demilitarized zone (DMZ) along these similar borders, off-boundaries to any Iranian forces.
That would established the scene for Trump’s by now declared drive to extract US forces out of Syria prior to Oct and the US mid-time period elections. The president would be ready to declare the proverbial “Mission Accomplished” in defeating Daesh or Islamic Condition.
The CIA and the Pentagon are not accurately enthusiastic with Trump’s alleged Syria gambit, to say the the very least. For assorted neocons and highly effective factions of the industrial-navy-surveillance intricate, “Assad have to go” Syria basically are not able to be traded off.
And however there is nothing to trade. Syria can’t be “offered” to Russia because Russia is already the significant participant in determining what comes about in Syria, not only militarily but by using the ongoing Astana structure along with Iran and Turkey. No ponder the alleged Trump “deal” was duly dismissed by the Kremlin.
What will be negotiated in the Trump-Putin summit, as Asia Moments has realized, is one thing entirely unique. This negotiation, incidentally, will take place right after the NATO summit in Brussels and in advance of the up coming Astana format assembly in Sochi on July 30, as confirmed by Russian Deputy Overseas Minister Sergei Vershinin.
The heart of the subject stays Syria’s territorial integrity and the legitimacy of the authorities in Damascus. Russia, Iran and, following a great number of circumvolutions, even Turkey are for it. The NATO-Gulf Cooperation Council alliance is ferociously from it – specifically soon after acquiring, above the past several a long time, funded and weaponized those people notorious “moderate rebels,” the too much to handle greater part of which are almost nothing but takfiri jihadis.
Back again to Daraa
And so, as a gloomy serpent biting its own tail, the tragic war in Syria is back again to the place it 1st started off, seven and a 50 % years back, to a dusty, dust-weak, religiously intolerant, again of outside of Daraa. Just across the border with Jordan, it is splendidly handy crossroads for weapons smuggling destined to the takfiri hordes.
As it stands, the most important narrative in Western media is that “regime forces” have unleashed air strikes and barrel bombs about “rebel-held” sections of southern Syria.
Mohammad Hawari, the UNHCR spokesman in Amman, may perhaps be appropriate when he says: “We’re experiencing a authentic humanitarian crisis in southern Syria.” What he does not say is that really a few “opposition bodies” – code for takfiri jihadis – have rejected Damascus-proposed specials to be back less than federal government handle, so inflating the humanitarian disaster.
Analyst Elijah Magnier has correctly discovered the condition of points in the battlefield, and some important sticking factors have by now been agreed on by Moscow and Washington.
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is proceeding flat out in an offensive to reopen the nation’s borders. What has not been negotiated is what transpires to a tricky patch partially bordering Jordan and partially in Quneitra province, in the vicinity of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Damascus needs to reopen full trade connectivity amongst Lebanon, Syria and Jordan, a route that goes all the way to the Gulf via Masna, among Lebanon and Syria, and Naseeb among Syria and Jordan, that is necessary to business for all concerned.
Once once again, the holy of the holies considerations al-Qaeda. In fact, Jabhat al-Nusra, as in al-Qaeda in Syria, is now rebranded as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and their allied assortment of 54 takfiri militias, skilled and weaponized in a base in Jordan, for decades, by the CIA and British Exclusive Forces.
It’s no top secret in Syria, and Lebanon, how this rebranded al-Qaeda has been intertwined with the militia mishmash that is acknowledged as the Southern Entrance. Their intel HQ is a US-led war-place centered in Amman known as the Navy Operations Heart (MOC), as Asia Occasions confirmed in excess of two years in the past. The MOC, staffed by US, United kingdom, France, Jordan, Israel and a number of GCC operatives, is liable for funding, weaponizing, salaries and intelligence for the takfiri galaxy.
The above map, even without having having into detail, at minimum displays how the rebranded al-Qaeda in Syria is firmly embedded in regions under command by “US-backed rebels.”
Major border difficulties
The latest Damascus offensive in Daraa will be compounded with an inescapable, further more offensive toward the US base at Al Tanf, on the Syria-Iraq border.
Al Tanf is certainly crucial to the entire plot, for the reason that which is in which US advisers have been for all functional functions rebranding takfiris into one thing called Maghawhir al Thawra (Commandos of the Revolution). These takfiri commandos are backed by US air energy and have been attacking the SAA outside a “deconfliction zone” that the US has – unilaterally – established up in just a 50-kilometer radius of Al Tanf.
The Pentagon narrative is that the US will have to continue being in Syria to battle Daesh. That does not increase up looking at the Commandos of the Revolution takfiri rebranding coupled with the fact it was the SAA, Iranian advisers, Hezbollah and Russia air electrical power who did the weighty lifting against all takfiri outfits, such as Daesh.
A several Hezbollah advisers are included in the Daraa offensive. There are no Iranian advisers. Hezbollah special forces are current in parts in close proximity to the Lebanese border. But the most vital level is that following the jihadi outfits are destroyed, they won’t need to continue to be in Quneitra or in the vicinity of the occupied Golan Heights.
Across the chessboard, what’s really major, as Magnier notes, is how “the presence of Takfiri Wahhabi jihadists on the Israeli-Syrian borders signifies – in Tel Aviv’s look at – a security issue to the Israeli Army. And Israel would alternatively not see the Syrian condition recovering and eliminating all terrorists and jihadists.”
The Israeli armed forces is, in reality, declaring that it “accepts” the SAA functions in Daraa and Quneitra. It is as if Israel agrees to allow Syria to be running inside … Syria.
Analyst Sharmine Narwani, recently returned from Daraa, is adamant “the US, Israel and their allies are unable to acquire this southern battle. They can only prolong the insecurity for a even though ahead of the SAA decides to start a armed service campaign in opposition to the 54-furthermore-militias-Nusra occupying the south of Syria.”
So there’s obtained to be a offer. And this is what Putin and Trump might be capable to negotiate in Helsinki.
No Takfiri still left powering
The key dilemma stays how to make Trump recognize what is at stake in conditions of US forces leaving Al-Tanf. The Pentagon and the CIA certainly love the thought of obtaining the Maghawhir takfiris constantly attacking the SAA on the only available crossing between Syria and Iraq on al-Qaim-Albu-Kamal.
The truth, while, will shortly set in. Russia is sending excess Unique Forces. The SAA is by now getting ready for the offensive. And the Iraqi People Mobilization Models (PMUs) will also join, every thing coordinated by an operations command in Baghdad.
All that is proof the US does not “have” southern Syria. What the US does have is roughly 2,000 Particular Forces embedded with the Kurdish YPG in the landlocked northeast and eastern Syria in close proximity to the Turkish and Iraqi borders. Certainly no 1 desires them there, except the YPG.
It is no secret the standard War Occasion suspects want Syria balkanized and unable to concentrate on economic recovery, with aid from Russia, China and Iran, to turn out to be a vital node in Eurasia integration.
As for Putin’s priorities, they are crystal clear: Syria’s territorial integrity, the balance of the governing administration in Damascus and The Gates of Hell for all takfiri jihadis, no matter what their denomination, so there won’t be any further blowback in the Caucasus.
It’s up to Trump, or the CIA, or the Pentagon if they insist on taking into consideration “No Takfiri Left Behind” a audio geopolitical system.